STRATAHELM · COMMUNITY AI EXPOSURE & RESILIENCE INDEX

Randolph County, Illinois

CAERI National › Illinois › Randolph County · FIPS 17157 · caeri:17157
36.8
CAERI score (national basis)
Bottom 25%
National percentile band
#2826
Ranked of 3142 U.S. counties
#88
Ranked in Illinois (of 102)
Medium
Confidence

Two comparisons, both shown. The national basis ranks Randolph County against every scored U.S. county — its percentile band above is a relative national standing, not a condition. The in-state basis ranks it against Illinois's other counties (rank and percentile only — bands aren't meaningful within a single state). A county can stand out in its own state while sitting mid-pack nationally. Neither is a forecast.

Pillar breakdown — national percentile ranks

P1 · Direct occupational exposure
11
P2 · Economic concentration
31
P3 · Adaptive capacity (inverted)
21
P4 · Regional buffer (inverted)
48
P5 · Fiscal sensitivity
19
Zone shading marks percentile quartiles; darker and warmer means more concerning. Capacity and buffer bars (inverted before aggregation) read mirrored — for those, a higher percentile is the safer pale end.

What this means for Randolph County

Randolph County scores 36.8 on the national CAERI basis — 2826th of 3,142 scored U.S. counties, placing it in the Bottom 25% band nationally by percentile, with a medium-confidence rating. Within Illinois it ranks 88th of 102 counties (14th in-state percentile). The score summarizes how concentrated local employment is in AI-exposed occupations against the economy's measured capacity to adapt; these are relative-standing bands, not a projection of local job change.

Direct occupational exposure stands at the 11th national percentile. The largest concentrations of locally estimated employment in high-exposure occupations are office clerks, general, secretaries and administrative assistants, except legal, medical, and executive, elementary school teachers, except special education. The share of exposed-industry jobs held by workers under 25 is 10% — above the state median of 9%; research on AI-era payrolls finds early-career roles in exposed work are where hiring patterns shift first, so this share indicates how soon exposure could be felt, not how large it is.

The share of exposed-industry jobs held by workers 55 and over is 31% (above the state median) — a higher share historically means slower workforce adjustment when industries restructure. Fiscal sensitivity ranks at the 32nd percentile among Illinois's counties. Census of Governments data shows state aid at 41% of this county's general revenue (above the state median), and wage- and consumption-sensitive streams (sales, income, and similar own-source taxes, where levied) at 4% of own-source revenue. Property taxes, which respond to economic change more slowly, are counted separately and are not part of that sensitive share. How this state's aid formulas and tax structure carry economic change into local budgets is covered in the state-specific fiscal analysis available to subscribers. All county occupation figures on this page are model-based ESTIMATES with the confidence rating shown above.

Largest locally-estimated employment in high-exposure occupations

Across all 195 high-exposure occupations (top quartile of ensemble exposure) with estimated local employment, Randolph County has an estimated 2,464 jobs — 17.7% of county employment — carrying an estimated $145M annual wage bill in high-exposure work. The five largest:

OccupationEstimated local employment*Exposure (0–1)Median wage (area)
Office Clerks, General2310.44$42,220
Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive2310.50$37,040
Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education1350.43$60,200
Customer Service Representatives1160.42$39,260
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks1140.51$45,600
*These are estimates, and cannot be anything else. No federal survey measures employment by occupation at county level — not for this county, and not for any county in the United States. Every figure in this table is therefore a model-based ESTIMATE built from published federal data, never a count of actual jobs. They are built to compare occupations and places rather than to be read as headcounts, and their accuracy differs by occupation group — our methodology §5.1 publishes the measured error, including the groups we estimate high and the groups we estimate low. Every county also carries the confidence rating shown above. Wage = area median.

Age structure of exposed-industry employment

Randolph CountyIllinois median
Share of exposed-industry jobs held by workers under 25 (entry rung) 10.3%9.2%
Share of exposed-industry jobs held by workers 55+ (adjustment friction) 30.9%28.7%

🔒 City-level detail for its cities and towns

The county number above averages over every community in it. City- and place-level exposure profiles, employer-mix detail, trend monitoring, and peer benchmarking are part of the CAERI subscription for local governments and regional organizations.

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Cite this page

Canonical identifier: caeri:17157 — this URL is permanent; if the address scheme ever changes, the old address will redirect. StrataHelm. (2026). Randolph County, Illinois — Community AI Exposure & Resilience Index (CAERI v1.0.0) [Data set]. Retrieved October 4, 2026, from https://stratahelm.com/counties/illinois/randolph/ “Randolph County, Illinois — CAERI.” StrataHelm, 2026, stratahelm.com/counties/illinois/randolph/. Accessed 4 October 2026. StrataHelm. “Randolph County, Illinois — Community AI Exposure and Resilience Index (v1.0.0).” 2026. https://stratahelm.com/counties/illinois/randolph/
Embed this county's score card — attribution to StrataHelm CAERI and the link back are part of the embedded page and cannot be stripped:<iframe src="https://stratahelm.com/counties/illinois/randolph/embed/" width="420" height="275" loading="lazy" title="CAERI — Randolph County, IL"></iframe>

Machine-readable: this county's JSON · national dataset download and data dictionary on the methodology page.

Nearby and comparable counties

Alexander County, IL (in state)Edwards County, IL (in state)Putnam County, IL (in state)Webster County, IA (similar score)Crittenden County, KY (similar score)Baylor County, TX (similar score)

Links point to the economically nearest counties (in-state, and similar national score). County-level geographic adjacency is not part of the public reference data, so proximity here is by rank, not by shared border.

Sources & provenance

LayerSources (vintage)
Employment & occupation structurecbp_il_county_naics4: Census CBP 2023 API (NAICS2017 classification; PAYANN in $1,000s; noise infusion G/H/J bands, D = withheld -&gt; NaN); county_soc_estimates.meta_il.json; exposure_scores: 2026-10-02; matrix_staffing_patterns: 2024-34 National Employment Matrix (base year 2024)
AI-exposure research baseAnthropic Economic Index; Felten, Raj & Seamans (AIOE); Eloundou et al. — combined as a weighted ensemble with cross-source disagreement feeding the confidence rating
Capacity, buffer & fiscalgovfin_il_county_revenue_mix: 2022 Census of Governments, Survey of Government Finances; lodes_il_county_flows: LEHD LODES8 OD 2023, JT00/S000; sources: il_main, il_aux, ia_aux, in_aux, ky_aux, mo_aux, wi_aux; qwi_il_county_naics3_age: Census QWI (qwi/sa), quarters [&#x27;2025-Q1&#x27;, &#x27;2025-Q2&#x27;, &#x27;2025-Q3&#x27;, &#x27;2025-Q4&#x27;], sex=0, ownercode=A05 (private), 96 NAICS-3 + &#x27;00&#x27; all-industry
MethodologyCAERI v1.0.0 · public methodology · scores generated 2026-10-02 · page generated 2026-10-04
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